古代黄河中游的环境变化和灾害——对都城迁移发展的影响

都城的选址、建设和迁移发展必须以环境资源为基础。我国古代的国家都城在黄河中游反复迁移，以至最后东迁南迁。在这个过程中，环境变迁和灾害一直是重要的驱动因素之一。通过统计分析历史时期洪涝和干旱灾害，以及气候水文变化资料，结合古都所在地的环境资源条件分析讨论，揭示了黄河中游环境变化和灾害对都城迁移发展的影响。都城在长安与洛阳之间的反复迁移，以及后来的东移开封，和南移到长江下游平原，环境的变迁是重要的驱动力之一。     

EMERGENCY WATER SUPPLIES FROM GROUND WATER IN HUMID REGIONS1

ABSTRACT: This paper focuses on the development and testing of a mathematical model of an emergency ground water supply operated principally during periods of low streamflow. The process of ground water withdrawal and recharge is simulated taking account of streamflow, water demand, evapotranspiration, natural and artificial recharge and increased evapotranspiration due to artificial recharge, ground water pumpage, and streamflow contribution to pumped water. The model determines whether natural recharge is possible in less time than the return period of drought and also whether artificial recharge is needed. By simulating operation over a long period of time, the model can examine different droughts of short and long duration and can test the operating rules for ground water storage development in an area. Submodels analyze the components of the operating process including ground water flow into the stream, seepage losses, stream portion of well discharge due to induced infiltration and recharge from rainfall or water spreading. The model has been tested for areas in the humid northeastern United States.     

A TREE-RING RECONSTRUCTION OF DROUGHT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: Indices of annual diameter growth of trees were used to reconstruct drought in southern California back to A.D. 1700. A regional Palmer Drought Index served as predictand and tree-ring indices from eight sites as predictors in multiple linear regression analyses that yielded the prediction (reconstruction) equations. The regression explained 69 percent of the variance in Palmer Index in the period of calibration. The long-term reconstruction indicated that drought was rare in the first half of the current century relative to other discrete 50-year periods, and that based on evidence to date the last half of the 20th century may well turn out to be the most drought prone since A.D. 1700 in southern California.     

USE OF A PREDICTIVE MODEL IN EVALUATING WATER CONSUMPTION CONSERVATION1

ABSTRACT: The effectiveness of water conservation policies on reduction of water consumption was evaluated by use of a multiple regression predictive model. Data were obtained from eight Iowa communities, with regard to water consumption and water conservation policies adopted during the drought of 1977. The proposed model, which takes precipitation, temperature, month effects, and uniqueness of communities into account, is considered superior to the use of simple percent changes in evaluating the significance of reduction in water consumption due to conservation efforts. Among the variety of policies reviewed, mandatory policies with per capita restrictions were found to be most effective. However, voluntary conservation policies also resulted in significant reduction in some communities located in close proximity to other communities with severer water shortages. High credibility of local governments as to water shortage information was singled out as the most important factor in successful conservation by water resource policymakers of these communities. Use of the proposed predictive model for water consumption was demonstrated. Recommendations regarding future water conservation were made.     

SPATIAL VARIATION OF PRECIPITATION ON THE TEXAS HIGH PLAINS1

ABSTRACT: Space autocorrelation techniques have been used to reveal the nature and spatial distribution of precipitation in the Texas High Plains. Correlation in precipitation amounts varies with both distance and direction, dropping off rapidly with distance, particularly during the warm season. The analyses can be used to estimate storm characteristics in conjunction with a wide variety of problems dealing with irrigation, crop yields, drainage and water supply, and evaluation of artificial weather modification efforts.     

EFFECTS OF THE URBAN ENVIRONMENT ON HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION1

ABSTRACT: A network of 225 recording raingages was operated over an area of 5200 km² in the St. Louis region during 1971-1975, in conjunction with an extensive investigation of urban effects on precipitation. Study of urban-induced effects on the frequency of heavy rainstorms has revealed a pronounced increase in the occurrence of storms producing 25 mm (1 inch) or more of rain. The increase is greatest in an area that is frequently in the path of storms passing across two urban-industrial regions. Analyses of raincells (rain intensity centers) within heavy convective storms shows a pronounced increase in water yield from cells exposed to potential urban effects, compared with those exposed only to the surrounding rural environment. Naturally-occurring heavy cells tend to undergo the greatest enhancement from urban exposure. Other analyses indicate an above-average frequency of excessive rain rates for periods of five minutes to two hours downwind of the urban-industrial complex. It is concluded that urban-induced intensification of short-duration rainstorms is sufficient to merit inclusion in the design and operation of urban-area hydrologic systems that control the flow of surplus storm water.     

Drought,water access,and urban agriculture: a case study from Silicon Valley

In California, the growing popularity of urban agriculture (UA) has unfolded against a backdrop of historic drought. While UA is often celebrated as an urban sustainability strategy, it must be able to persist during drought if it is to perform these functions. Using Santa Clara County – the geographic core of Silicon Valley – as a case study, we use interviews and surveys to explore the implications of drought for UA. We show how developing an understanding of water access for UA during a drought requires examining the social and institutional context of water management and use. In metropolitan California, the highly decentralised water supply system combined with the diverse institutional arrangements that support UA create an uneven landscape of water access. Consequently, the pressure to change water-consuming practices – that is, the stress that institutional drought responses place on different water users – is geographically and socially differentiated. Among UA water users, responses to drought have also varied, in part because the possibilities for change are constrained by the sociotechnical arrangements of UA sites and the different purposes of UA.     

基于DEM的山区旱灾风险评价模型——以西南地区为例

旱灾研究中,地形导致的水热再分配容易造成地域间旱灾灾情的明显差异,因此地形因子对于旱灾风险的准确评价及灾情的客观评估至关重要。采用气象站点观测数据和DEM数据,通过模拟复杂地形影响下的下垫面真实水分情况,加入地形因子的影响,建立了以干旱致灾因子(水分条件)、孕灾环境(地形)、承灾体(农作物脆弱性曲线)综合的旱灾风险评价三度模型;并以地形复杂、旱灾多发的西南地区为例,编制了旱灾风险等级图,以期为客观评估旱灾灾情,有效开展区域旱灾风险防范提供科学依据。     

干旱、农业旱灾与农户旱灾脆弱性分析——以邢台县典型农户为例

从微观农户角度分析了干旱、农业旱灾和农户旱灾脆弱性的成因。文章认为，自然降水不足或与作物需求匹配不均是造成农业干旱的动力，农户对干旱的应付能力不足是导致干旱成灾的原因。这种应付能力既受区域水资源可利用量的限制，也与农户的作物种植结构、灌溉支付能力、风险认识和对农业的依赖程度有关。农户旱灾脆弱性既与农业干旱有关，又受到人均资源和收入、种植和消费结构、生态环境质量、政策、市场价格等多重因素的作用。最脆     

如何确定高加速寿命试验的应力极限

气锤驱动的高加速寿命试验,主要目的是确定试验样品的应力极限(包括工作极限和破坏极限),并通过改进试验所暴露的缺陷,按预期目标拓宽产品的应力极限。本文对一些应力极限的名词术语作了解释性说明,并具体论述了如何确定应力极限及快速温变循环试验的高低温温度极值。